Hamilton’s housing market may never be this “affordable” again, a real estate expert says, but for many residents the dream of owning a home remains out of reach.
After years of freefall from the pandemic-era peak, prices in the city appear to have stabilised. August’s median house price sat at $742,000, almost unchanged from a year ago and well below the December 2021 peak of $870,000, according to REINZ data.
Volumes are climbing too, with 292 homes sold in August, up from 204 in the same month last year.
Harcourts Hamilton manager Campbell Scott says Hamilton buyers are looking at the most affordable window they’re likely to see for some time. “I genuinely think they are about as good as they’ll get,” he said, describing the current conditions as the “crest of the wave” before prices lift again. With interest rates falling and buyer confidence creeping back, Scott believes those purchasing now will “look back and pat themselves on the back” in a year’s time.
The Reserve Bank’s latest 50-basis-point cut to the Official Cash Rate on Wednesday, bringing it down to 2.5%, will add to the optimism, he said.
The move follows a string of rate reductions this year as inflation eases towards the 2% target, and banks have been quick to pass on cheaper lending. For prospective homeowners, that means lower repayments and a sense that the worst of the affordability crisis may have passed.
But not everyone agrees Hamilton’s housing market has turned a corner.
Economist Gareth Kiernan of Infometrics said affordability has improved since the pandemic peak but remains “worse than any time prior to 2020.” Hamilton’s house price-to-income ratio, he said, still sits around 6.5 times the median income, compared with 8.5 times during the 2021 boom. It’s still not good by historical standards,” Kiernan said. “We’re expecting prices to go sideways over the next two to three years … as incomes rise, affordability will gradually improve.”
That prediction clashes with agents’ optimism that Hamilton’s market has bottomed out. Kiernan said that despite lower mortgage rates, cost-of-living pressures — rising insurance, rates, and electricity costs — continue to squeeze household budgets, leaving many reluctant to take on new debt.
Meanwhile, those on the frontlines of the housing crisis say the idea of “affordability” itself is being distorted.
Jennifer Palmer, general manager of Bridge Housing Charitable Trust<, said many of those seeking help from her organisation “are really struggling to afford even the houses that we provide”, despite prices starting as low as $320,000 under assisted ownership schemes.“Average does not mean affordable,” she said. “The average house price in Hamilton is around $800,000. People cannot afford that.”
Palmer said demand for genuinely affordable homes continues to surge, with the trust’s waiting list ballooning from 500 to 900 households in just a year. Many are nurses, council staff, and young families — “regular people with hardworking, good jobs” who still cannot get onto the ladder. She warned that while new builds are helping, “we’re not building enough of the right sort of houses” . Smaller footprints, terraced homes, and apartments — the kinds of developments that can lower price points — remain limited.
Her organisation’s new Hinemoa project in the CBD aims to change that, with one- and two-bedroom homes priced from the low $500,000s and backed by the council and Perry Group support. Even then, she admits, “It’s still above the international standard for affordable housing, but that’s the most affordable you’ll be finding in Hamilton.” Palmer said the city has effectively plateaued in crisis mode. “It may not be getting worse at the speed it was before … but just because we’re stagnating at a crisis doesn’t mean that’s improvement.”
Article extracted from the Waikato Times, published on 10 October 2025